There’s a good summary of Dean’s current message over at DailyKos :

On the stump, Dean has three major themes about his candidacy. (He is also emphasizing at least three, equally important arguments about the electoral situation for 2004 — but I’ll have to write that up on the bus back to Manchester. He’s almost done here at Phillips Exeter…and we are departing immediately afterward.)

Number 1 is that, on issues ranging from Iraq to civil unions to No Child Left Behind, he has taken courageous positions on issues when others dared not. He says leadership is 80 percent doing what the people expect of you, and the other 20 percent “is standing up for what you believe in and asking the voters to come with you.” I feel like I’ve waited my entire life to hear a politician say this, in this way. I’d only quibble with the percentages: 20 percent is too low.

Number 2 is actually a twist on Bush’s “reformer with results” horseshit he immediately started shoveling after McCain whupped him here in New Hampshire in 2000. Dean’s point is that he’s an executive who has balanced budgets and brought health care to most children and expanded it for those over 25 as well - that he has accomplishments, not merely positions.

Number 3 is that, as Dean puts it simply, “I don’t owe anything to anybody except for you.” He talks about the problem special interests (who doesn’t?), and notes that 89 percent of his donations are in amounts of $100 or less.

All three make for a solid stump speech, and if they sound terribly familiar (especially the middle one) it’s because, well, they ARE familiar. This is the pre-frontrunner Dean, who has since realized that the campaign is not about itself.

These are the main reasons that I support Dean.

Unfortunately, that message isn’t getting out. If you think about all the big memes about Deans candidacy over the past year, none of them encompass the message outlined above : the internet candidate, the anti-war candidate, grassroots, the new McGovern, endorsed by Gore, , too liberal, too angry, out of control. These have all gotten people talking, but they haven’t told people why they should vote for the doctor.

And there’s the rub. At this point Dean needs to speak up and make sure his message gets heard. But if he raises his voice above a whisper, it’s going to play into the “Dean is a madman” story. So Dean is straddling the line between not getting his message out or looking even crazier on TV.

Which leads to my prediction/warning about the New Hampshire primary. Dean needs to win or he’s done. Coming out of tomorrow, Dean needs a week of positive press to help him get over the (as It was described on CNN) “I Have A Scream” speech. If the story is lukewarm, the lead will still be frontrunner Kerry fighting back nutcase Dean. Unless the story is “Dean is surging” then I don’t see how he’ll be able to fix dismal showing in the polls for next week’s primaries.

But then again, Dean has a lot of money and the other guys don’t. That seemed to work for Bush last time.