Kevin Drum has a post that is the most concise assessment of the Bush Administration’s Iraq folly yet. This is most of it, but I strongly recommend reading the whole thing :
Let’s start at the beginning. A few weeks before the war started, based on well known experience in Kosovo and other wars, the Army chief of staff warned that a successful occupation of Iraq would require “several hundred thousand” troops. George Bush ignored that advice and accepted Donald Rumsfeld’s view that the job could be done with only 150,000.
A couple of days later Pentagon #2 Paul Wolfowitz defended the lower troop estimate. There was, he said, no history of ethnic strife in Iraq and Iraqi civilians would welcome an American-led liberation force. At the same time, the Pentagon was downplaying the cost of the war, suggesting that estimates of $100 billion were far too high.
This was all happening in late February 2003, and two things were becoming increasingly obvious even to war supporters. First, despite confident statements that Saddam Hussein had WMD and we knew exactly where it was, the UN inspectors couldn’t find it. Even when we sent them to specific sites based on our own intelligence they couldn’t find anything. Obviously something was fishy.
Second, the president and his advisors seemed delusional in suggesting that a Christian superpower could invade a Muslim country and be greeted as liberators. Ethnic and religious strife was inevitable, and the administration’s estimates of 150,000 troops and $100 billion were simply ludicrous.
. . .
But the mismanagement didn’t stop there. Jay Garner, the first proconsul of Iraq, tried to bring in a team of genuine Iraq experts. The experts were blackballed by the Pentagon and Garner was fired. He wasn’t ideologically pure enough.
A month later, Garner’s replacement, Paul Bremer, disbanded the Iraqi army. There was no need for them. In June the former Secretary of the Army said publicly that the administration was “unwilling to come to grips” with what it would take to succeed in Iraq. He was ignored.
In November, after the Ramadan carnage, the story on troop strength stayed the same. In fact, rather than admit to a problem, Bremer and the administration decided to speed up the training of homegrown Iraqi police in a slapdash way and accelerate the handover of authority to Iraqis. Getting out seemed more important than succeeding.
And today, even after weeks of bloody uprisings have given the lie to practically everything they’ve said, the June 30 handover date is still sacrosanct and Rumsfeld is still unwilling to increase troop strength by more than a few thousand.
I am/was strongly against the Iraq war. Not because I’m an unabashed pacifist or that I underestimated the brutality of Saddam Hussein’s regime, but that the timing was wrong. Despite promises to the contrary, the Bush Administration scaled back their “war on terror” in order to overthrow Saddam. After the tragedy of 9/11, scaling back the hunt for al Qaeda and allowing them time to regroup seemed like borderline treason. This coupled with the almost certain ulterior motives behind the White House’s lust for warfare was enough to change me from a far left-leaning moderate to a flower waving peacenik (no, I never actually waved flowers, but you know what I mean.)
But what Kevin Drum has laid out in his post is what I think is the war’s biggest flaw. Like a guy who reacts to loud noises coming from under the hood by purchasing a louder stereo, Bush and his advisors seem to think that they can pretend their problems don’t exist and hope they go away. If we just take them at their word and don’t jump to any (logical) conclusions about their plans, then the White House is still full of people who are so optimistic and naive that they’re willing to ignore the advice of anyone who disagrees with them even slightly.
So, war supporters, how do you reconcile support for a war when it’s being run by simpletons? Many war opponents have described this as “the right war at the wrong time”, but are you willing to admit that this might be “the right war with the wrong leaders”?
And to push home the point even further about how inadequate Bush’s leadership in Iraq has been, compare the Bush’s public strategy of denying the obvious with this John Kerry op-ed :
In recent weeks the administration — in effect acknowledging the failure of its own efforts — has turned to U.N. representative Lakhdar Brahimi to develop a formula for an interim Iraqi government that each of the major Iraqi factions can accept. It is vital that Brahimi accomplish this mission, but the odds are long, because tensions have been allowed to build and distrust among the various Iraqi groups runs deep. The United States can bolster Brahimi’s limited leverage by saying in advance that we will support any plan he proposes that gains the support of Iraqi leaders. Moving forward, the administration must make the United Nations a full partner responsible for developing Iraq’s transition to a new constitution and government. We also need to renew our effort to attract international support in the form of boots on the ground to create a climate of security in Iraq. We need more troops and more people who can train Iraqi troops and assist Iraqi police.
We should urge NATO to create a new out-of-area operation for Iraq under the lead of a U.S. commander. This would help us obtain more troops from major powers. The events of the past week will make foreign governments extremely reluctant to put their citizens at risk. That is why international acceptance of responsibility for stabilizing Iraq must be matched by international authority for managing the remainder of the Iraqi transition. The United Nations, not the United States, should be the primary civilian partner in working with Iraqi leaders to hold elections, restore government services, rebuild the economy, and re-create a sense of hope and optimism among the Iraqi people. The primary responsibility for security must remain with the U.S. military, preferably helped by NATO until we have an Iraqi security force fully prepared to take responsibility.
Finally, we must level with our citizens. Increasingly, the American people are confused about our goals in Iraq, particularly why we are going it almost alone. The president must rally the country around a clear and credible goal. The challenges are significant and the costs are high. But the stakes are too great to lose the support of the American people.
By contrast, Bush’s bold prime-time press conference last night was full of fluffy rhetoric about how wonderful “freedom” is, further demonization of a guy we’ve already got in jail, and a continuing misunderestimation of the hell that Bush has let Iraq become.