A Bold Prediction

Here’s an op-ed that really warms the heart :

Less than six months from election day, polls suggest that Mr Kerry is leading the President in 12 of the 16 so-called swing states. In some states the lead is slight, but in places such as New Hampshire, which Mr Bush won in 2000, Mr Kerry has a lead of almost 10 per cent.

Though polls offer only a snapshot in time, pollster John Zogby, who made the latest survey, said if the present leads in these 16 states hold true - and Democrats and Republicans hold on to the states each party won easily in 2000 - Mr Kerry will win with a margin of 102 electoral college votes. In 2000, Mr Bush beat Al Gore by 271 to 267.

“I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls,” Mr Zogby wrote in an op-ed article. “Here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election … We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry’s to lose.”

The battleground states, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin, are likely to prove crucial in deciding who carries the day on 2 November. Republican and Democrat strategists know that in at least 30 states, along with the District of Columbia, the outcome of the vote is a foregone conclusion. But in the battleground states - which were won in 2000 by six percentage points or less - everything is up for grabs.

Six months ago we thought Dean would be the nominee, so let’s not forget how quickly things can change. With that caveat out of the way, damn this is awesome.

The important think here it to not get too confident. If 2000 taught us anything, it’s not enough to just get more votes. If we want to guarantee that Kerry will win, we have to make sure it’s by an unquestionable landslide. With the way Bush continues to dig his own grave, it’s a possibility.


posted by greg on May 28, 2004 @ 1:15 pm

3 comments

  1. I notice all the stories re: Kerry rising and Bush falling in polls are tied to the Zogby polling companies. Why Zogby? Is Zogby going out on a limb here? If not, why don’t the other polling companies make the same sorts of predictions? Is it possible that Zogby has a vested interest in Kerry for some reason or is trying to build him up? I am for Kerry but I am just pointing out that this pattern looks a bit odd.

    Comment by Anna in Cairo — May 30, 2004 @ 12:52 am

  2. I have a strong suspicion about any email or online polling. I think they have a tendency to veer more left of center than the actual population does, despite the safeguards they use to prevent that.

    Comment by dAnimal — May 31, 2004 @ 5:31 pm

  3. It IS Kerry’s election to lose, but since that’s what Democrats are good at, I don’t find that very reassuring.

    As for the “foregone conclusion” states, the worst possible choice would be not to fight for them. The way things are going Kerry could rip one or two states out of Bush’s camp, with a sustained effort. What’s more, it’s important to treat voters in “foregone” states as if their opinions mattered, as it helps move those states to the middle and left, while bringing out voters for the local Democrats and helping create a left-of-center House and Senate.

    Comment by joe — June 1, 2004 @ 7:05 am

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