Post-Convention Bounce or Thud?
On Friday morning, we’ll know for sure whether or not Bush will be serving a second term. Why so early? Because the news on Friday is going to be mixed between two big stories. One is going to be Bush’s string of promises and “optimistic” talk on Thursday night? The other will be the evidence that will determine whether Bush’s words will be seen as those of a leader whose policies are working or a moron who’s completely out of touch with the mainstream.
Remember a few weeks ago when economists were stunned by the numbers that showed only 32,000 new jobs created during July? When that came out, I posted this graphic that contrasted the job creation this year :
Considering the expectations (blue line) and reality (red line) of the jobs creation, economists are waiting with baited breath to see if July’s numbers are an aberration or a sign that we’re facing “stagflation”. Based on the current trend, things don’t look good for Bush.
The August job creation numbers come out early this Friday morning.
Regardless of what Bush says, it will be reported alongside the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. If the numbers are anything like March or April, we should start looking towards 2008, but if the job creation is weak, the stories will contrast Bush’s “tax cuts are working” rhetoric with the BLS’s “no, they aren’t” statistics.
3 comments
Copy link for RSS feed for comments on this post
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
I heard Karen Tumulty with Time talk about this over the weekend and she seemed to think the job numbers would not be good. Since Bush’s incompetence and dishonesty is obvious to everyone I can’t help but wonder why it is acceptable to so many.
Comment by Becky — August 30, 2004 @ 11:28 am
This is making me nervous, now — if the job numbers are expected to be bad, and Bush is expected to get only a little bounce because of it; wonder if there’s anything to the rumor that Cheney will step down (health reasons, yeah right…) and be replaced by McCain?
Comment by jeff — August 30, 2004 @ 11:53 am
They don’t know what the numbers are yet and would have already replaced Cheney if they thought it was necessary. They’re not going to do it at the last minute on rumors of a bad number. However, I am interested to see if the Prez tempers his optimistic economic message so that he doesn’t look like a fool the very next day…
I think there is much more downside than upside for the GOP in the coming payroll report. A great number (300+k) wouldn’t lock things up for them, while a low number or (dare to dream) a negative one would bring on a media frenzy. “Is Bush in touch? Was Greenspan too optimistic? Have the tax cuts fizzled…?” There would be the dreaded 3 month in a row downtrend, and the markets would be very worried, right before many get their quarterly 401k statements next month.
If there is an underwhelming number (I’m thinking it will be closer to 150k this time– based on nothing), we might hear a lot about how the hurricane in florida affected the survey.
Even two great numbers in a row would only counteract the two piss poor numbers from June and July. Also, there’s the inconvenient possibility of the percentage of unemployed RISING after a great number, as more people enter the workforce. People who scan the headlines might wonder about that. It’s hard to say, though.
I must disagree with you, Greg. It is far too premature to “start looking to 2008″ even if a great unemployment report is released. The importance of this election demands utmost effort until election day. We shouldn’t give up, nor should we take anything for granted, based on what the BLS tells us Friday.
There are debates, more economic statistics, and all kinds of other wild cards in play. Remember, Gore got more votes on election day though he was behind in nearly every poll.
It would be a mistake to throw in the towel to early this year.
Comment by oyster — August 30, 2004 @ 12:56 pm