How It’ll Go Down

Matthew Gross has challenged bloggers to predict the election’s outcome before tonight’s debate. At risk of jinx-ing us, here’s my guess :




The grand total is a 343-195 electoral win for Kerry. For the popular vote, I’m guessing it’ll be something along the lines of 56.5% (Kerry), 41% (Bush), 2% (Other), and 0.5% (Nader). Most importantly, I think November 2nd will see a decisive victory for John Kerry.

Looking around at the numbers that other people have come up with, mine look very optimistic. Here’s a few reasons I think the election will swing in Kerry’s direction :

  • Kerry’s got the momentum and Bush doesn’t. I’m still worried about how the debates might change things, but things don’t look good for Bush right now.
  • The polls show a tight race, but these are the same polls that are oversampling Republicans. Add to that the huge gains Democrats have made in the registration race, it looks like there could be a big pro-Dem swing.
  • Bush has seriously pissed off some swing states. Pennsylvania and Ohio were jerked around by Bush’s steel tariffs and Nevada won’t soon forget being made a nuclear dumping ground.
  • You’ve heard this one before, but it’s true. Undecided voters generally break against the incumbent…blah, blah, blah.
  • Things don’t look like they’ll get much better before Nov. 2nd. Iraq is a mess and gonna get worse, Bush’s last chance at good economic news passed today, etc.

    Predictions aside, the left doesn’t have any laurels to rest on right now. It’s very important to keep the momentum going. If you can volunteer or donate, do it. If you have time for some post-debate spin, do it. Most of all, keep your eyes on the finish line and brace for a potential October surprise. We’re less than a month away from the most important election of our lifetimes.

    Update : Okay, you guys caught me. I didn’t notice that I left WI red until I was previewing the post and was too lazy to go back and make an updated graphic. My real prediction is a 353-185 win for Kerry.


    • posted by greg on October 8, 2004 @ 11:09 am

    8 comments

    1. Wisconsin will go Kerry before Tennessee does, but otherwise those picks look ok. It’ll all come down to turnout and disenfranchisement.

      Comment by phil — October 8, 2004 @ 11:38 am

    2. Money on the Table

      Last night, I challenged my fellow bloggers to predict the electoral and popular vote outcome of the general election, before tonight’s debate. More than 20 bloggers have hazarded their predictions. Here’s mine: While the actual states won’t count in d…

      Trackback by Mathew Gross — October 8, 2004 @ 12:51 pm

    3. I think the number of newly registered voters in Ohio bodes well for Kerry, despite Diebold.

      But I think between Diebold and Jeb Bush, Florida will be “stolen” again – if isn’t already.

      Comment by Wayne Mattson — October 8, 2004 @ 1:07 pm

    4. BY THE WAY…I’m searching for a map to use for my own electoral updates on my blog. I’ve been using US Election Atlas, but their colors are reversed (Democrats are red, and Republicans are blue – Have you ever heard of anything so SUBVERSIVE!?) :-)

      Your map looks like the LA Times map, but I can’t figure out how to save a scenario to post it.

      Signed,
      Not so computer savy.

      Comment by Wayne Mattson — October 8, 2004 @ 1:24 pm

    5. All I can say is that i hope your right. It makes sense the way you present it, but then it would also have made sense not to invade Iraq.

      Comment by sebimeyer — October 8, 2004 @ 1:36 pm

    6. Your map looks like the LA Times map, but I can’t figure out how to save a scenario to post it.

      Good eye. I used their map and did a screenshot in Photoshop. If you’re using a Windows machine, just hit the “print scrn” button on your keyboard and then paste into a new image.

      Comment by greg — October 8, 2004 @ 1:58 pm

    7. Not a Poll, But a Pretty Good Prediction

      Today’s fun blogger activity is predicting the outcome of the election. The challenge was issued, so i’ve seen a bumch of people giving it a go today. I like The Talent Show’s prediction. Not just because he goes out a…

      Trackback by Issues Forum — October 8, 2004 @ 3:51 pm

    8. Wait, you gave TN and AR to Kerry before you give him WI?

      You’ve obviously not seen our ground campaign here. Factor in at-the-polls registration and big student populations in Madison and Milwaukee . . . It’s not as close as it looks.

      Comment by folkbum — October 8, 2004 @ 4:26 pm

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