Excellent post today at Liberal Oasis about where the candidates stand going into tonight’s showdown :

Last week, Kerry knew he would clear a bar by not coming across as a flip-flopper.

Today, Bush knows he would clear a bar by not coming across like a spoiled brat.

One would assume with so much on the line he would straighten up.

But until this year, he has never had to debate with a controversial record to defend, and he clearly doesn’t care for it.

Even if he does put on a different face, it is still questionable if he will put on the right one.
. . .
The punditocracy still thinks of Kerry as an aloof patrician who lacks a common touch, while deeming Bush better at connecting with regular Americans.

If that’s what you think, then the town hall is tailor-made for Bush and not Kerry.

Of course, the caricature isn’t true: of Kerry or the public.

Kerry doesn’t need fake folksiness to win tonight.

He needs to impress upon an anxious and concerned audience that he knows how he’s going to get us out of our current mess.

As he did last week.

I’ve said it again and again, but I don’t think we can underestimate Bush’s Tardfactor™ (his ability to woo voters with ignorance and charm), but I also think people still don’t know much about Kerry. Along the same lines as what LO said, here’s where I think the two guys stand :

Bush - He screwed up royally last week. He came across as petulant and snippy. Four years ago, Al Gore made the same mistakes in his first debate with his infamous sighs. In the next debate, he overcompensated and everyone slammed him for being stiff and wooden. Then he overcompensated again during the final debate and was slammed for being too aggressive (remember that bullshit about Gore being “scary”?). Now I don’t necessarily think Bush will fall into the same traps, especially since stiffness doesn’t play into the media’s preconceptions about him, but I think Bush’s chances of overcompensating are pretty high. Keep your eyes peeled for some really awkward restraint.

Kerry - While many are ready to give Bush the advantage when it comes to a townhall debate format, I think Kerry is poised to surprise people yet again. As Bill said, people see Kerry as “aloof”, but I think he’s a lot more down to Earth than people give him credit for. Check out this post from six months ago for some examples of what I’m talking about. Unlike Al Gore, who really was a nerd, Kerry isn’t the culturally-illiterate bore that people assume he is. As long as he’s able to show a more human side of himself tonight while keeping the attacks strong, he’ll do well.

The real wildcard here is what kinda questions these “undecided voters” (and partisans in leaner’s clothing) come up with. Considering how poorly Bush answered obvious questions last week, how will he react to a curveball like “Was your Mars plan, and your failure to mention it since then, just a tacky attempt to pander to voters that failed?” or “Why haven’t you taken your annual physical this year? Are you getting high again?” My guess is tonight’s debate will be a rhetorical minefield that could smack either guy.

On the same topic, a guy on NPR just said the best sports analogy for judging debates is Olympic figure skating since it’s a “quadrennial competition that nobody watching knows how to score until someone falls down”. Sounds about right to me.