Cards on the Table

Since all the cool kids are doing it, here are my final predictions for this Tuesday :


final-predictions.jpg

For eagle-eyed readers, you’ll notice that my prediction is slightly different than from three weeks ago. I don’t think the chatter about winning Tennessee really panned out, but the chances of winning Arizona have picked up since the debates. Also, I’ll spare you predictions for the popular vote because (a) I was pulling those numbers out of my ass anyways and (b) if the electoral process doesn’t give a shit about the popular vote, why should I?

The reasons I gave for my predictions three weeks ago are even stronger now.

  • The almighty incumbent rule will bite Bush in the ass. Especially when he’s below 50% in states that he has to win.

  • Clinton’s back! Maybe I’m being too optimistic here, but I really think his presence on the campaign trail could be enough to swing a leaner or two (Missouri and Arkansas in particular).
  • The polls showed Bush with a substantial lead this time four years ago and Gore ended up getting half a million more votes. Keep that in mind when you see today’s polls form the same companies that show a tie.
  • The polling methodology is still suspect. The main pollsters are weighing their polls under the assumption that minority turnout will be low and that Republicans will outnumber Democrats at the polls. This logic defies the exit poll numbers from 2000, clear demographic shifts, and the conventional wisdom that Democrats are more motivated than Republicans this year.
  • Bush’s presidency has hurt the swing states. The jerked around Pennsylvania and Ohio with his steel tariff flip-flops, he made Nevada into a nuclear dumping ground, and his commitment to union busting won’t win him many friends in worker-friendly Great Lakes region. Not to mention the state-specific unemployment numbers haven’t had much good news for Bush lately.
  • Kerry’s got the big MO. He’s won the news cycle every day this week. The Sunday shows will be a mix of predictions and debate on issues that hurt Bush. With four days to go, Bush probably won’t have time to turn things around.
  • Weapons, weapons, weapons. When confronted with evidence that they let explosives fall into the hands of terrorists, the Bushies did what they’ve been doing for the last four years; they lied and tried to change the subject. Unfortunately for them, it didn’t work this time. A story that should have been defeated on Wednesday lived on to fight another day. People will still be talking about this on Tuesday morning.

    • So that’s how I think it’s gonna go down. While I’m still aware that anything can happen between now and Tuesday evening, time is running out for any surprises. The GOP is still trying to work the refs, so we shouldn’t keep our eyes off the ball. Pay close attention to any potential voter fraud or intimidation, contact the media to make sure the election storyline isn’t being written exclusively by right-wingers, and do what you can to help get out the vote through donations or volunteer work. We can rest when the polls close…for a little while anyways.


    posted by greg on October 29, 2004 @ 11:10 am

    12 comments

    1. I like the background image you got there.

      Comment by David — October 29, 2004 @ 11:20 am

    2. So you’re calling for a virtual landslide? You are far braver than I am. I think the midwest is going to go to Bush despire their large latino populations (in fact, I think that may be a cause).

      Comment by e-rock — October 29, 2004 @ 11:38 am

    3. I agree with the landslide. Everything is falling in to place. We have the huge number of early voters, and new voters, and we can be sure that the level of apathy compared to the 2000 election is far lower. The large number newspaper endorsements for Kerry, including conservative papers, are also a good indicator.

      Oh, I too like the background image for your results graphic. :)

      Comment by Brian — October 29, 2004 @ 12:45 pm

    4. Osama Bin Ladan just weighed in via Al Jazerra.
      Bush White House mum. Was this Bib Laden saying.” Nah, Nah, Nahnahnah, I’m still here.” to Bush

      Comment by Betty — October 29, 2004 @ 1:26 pm

    5. I agree on everywhere except Florida. Nothing good can come from that God-Forsaken Pit.

      Comment by Joe — October 29, 2004 @ 3:03 pm

    6. I’m no fan of Florida, but I think Bush alienating the Cuban community by imposing new limitations on family visits is gonna cost him.

      Comment by greg — October 29, 2004 @ 3:18 pm

    7. Speaking of Florida, this campaign ad is gonna put Kerry over the top. It’s devastating to Bush.

      Comment by greg — October 29, 2004 @ 6:12 pm

    8. Another reason to take the polls with a grain of salt: there are 170 million cell phones in the US. 5% of those are people who use their cell phone as their only phone, i.e., no land line. That’s 11.9 MILLION people who could not be reached by telephone polls, which only call land lines.

      Comment by Joe in OR — October 29, 2004 @ 8:27 pm

    9. Alright…if Florida elects John Kerry, I’ll stop hating it. The ad looks good. And I sure hope you’re right, cause if you’re right, November 3rd is gonna be the sweetest fucking day ever.

      Comment by Joe — October 29, 2004 @ 10:05 pm

    10. More Maps

      The Talent Show weighs in with a more confident projection than Mr. Drum offered in a post below…

      …and speaking of getting into the game, I’ll jump into the deep end of the projections pool with this one.

      Trackback by Upper Left — October 30, 2004 @ 2:50 am

    11. As an outsider a few thousand kilometers/miles from the USA I hope I can make an unbiased comment.
      Many Americans don’t know that polls in several countries show 80% support for Kerry and only 20% for Bush. Although of course it will not be that great a landslide for Kerry. Most of us non-Americans cannot understand why Bush seems so popular with so many Americans.

      Comment by Ted Kent — October 30, 2004 @ 6:56 pm

    12. You’re living in a dream world! Middle America will be resoundingly Bush’s. And the weapons story did NOT live on to another day. It was defeated within one news cycle, and it laid bare the bias of major media. Don’t worry…CBS will fake up some new documents tonight to help you guys out. ;-)

      Love ya!
      -Keith

      Comment by Keith Hutchins — November 1, 2004 @ 3:26 pm

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