It’s Over

CNN is reporting that John Kerry just called Bush to concede. But what happens if this pans out?

Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221

If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I’ve seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.

Yes, I’m grasping at straws, but just because I’m trying to avoid imagining what a second Bush term will be like.


posted by greg on November 3, 2004 @ 8:28 am

6 comments

  1. My first thoughts were moving to Canada, but then I realized its too cold there. I’m suggesting Austrailia. I’ve seen Crocodile Hunter enough times, it sounds like a fun place.

    Comment by Paul M. — November 3, 2004 @ 8:36 am

  2. Then the electors will vote for Kerry and he wins – regardless of his concession today. He’d have to then turn down the job after December 7th.

    Comment by Ben — November 3, 2004 @ 8:39 am

  3. Greg,
    Maybe you or someone elese could explain to me why Floriad was called without counting the early vote (more than a million outstanding from what I hear).

    Comment by Socraticsilence — November 3, 2004 @ 9:14 am

  4. what would happen is that you would get the right wing media and everyone NOT willing to concede, I was appalled when a conservative coworker had this shine in her eyes that Kerry was going to concede, I know schadenfreude is bad, but honest to god, they wish crap upon us liberals just because we happen not to LOVE this guy…
    oh well, they will likely get this country into such a hole that its going to take a long time to get back out of it

    Comment by Kurt — November 3, 2004 @ 10:51 am

  5. This is a matter much too important to allow Kerry to decide for the rest of us. Now is the time to call upon our Democratic Senators to prevent the confirmation of Bush by whatever procedural means are available. Until the election is done properly and all eligible voters are allowed to have their votes counted, the results shouldn’t be accepted.

    I delivered this message in person to Senator Murray last night, firmly and politely. I encourage others to say the same to their Senators.

    Comment by CupaJoe — November 3, 2004 @ 11:33 am

  6. what happens if the impending Falluja assault goes horribly wrong? Nothing binds the Electoral college to vote as is projected.

    Comment by FreedomByChoice — November 3, 2004 @ 1:21 pm

Copy link for RSS feed for comments on this post

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.