Via Oliver, I see that New York Magazine has an interesting article titled Reasons They Haven?t Hit Us Again that explores some of the theories about why we haven’t seen another 9/11 style attack. Here’s an incredibly brief rundown of their top five theories (if you’ve got time, go read the whole thing) :

1. We?re On Al Qaeda Time. - They’re ready and just waiting for the right moment to attack.

2. New York Has Become A Difficult Target. - The NYPD’s anti-terrorism officials have been so beefed up, they’re no longer a “soft target”. Makes sense, but it doesn’t really explain why other soft targets haven’t been hit instead.

3. The French Have Saved Us. - Our intelligence services are crap, but the French already have leftover experts from “their days as colonial masters of Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco” that have helped us foil a few terrorist plots. I guess we can start calling them French fries again.

4. Suicide Bombings Don?t Work Here. - American culture is so goddamned wonderful that once a terrorist moves here, the steady supply of Big Macs, Jessica Simpson, and Old Navy make it unlikely that you’d want to kill yourself.

5. Bin Laden Isn?t A Terrorist, He?s A Killer. - Bin Laden saw 9/11 as an act of war. As such, his goal isn’t to terrorize people but kill as many as possible. Now that we’ve taken to war to them (ugh..), it’s easier for them to attack our troops instead of our office buildings.

Now it just so happens that I’ve had a theory of my own that’s been swimming through my head for a little while. Since it wasn’t even hinted at in the article above, here’s my additional theory of why they haven’t hit us again :

6. They Don’t Need To - Bin Laden’s goals with 9/11 were to provoke an extreme reaction from the United States that would galvanize the Arab world through an overbearing use of military might and a massive domestic expenditures that would cripple us financially. Considering the worsening economic picture (do Google search for “falling dollar” to get an idea) and the unification of the Islamic world against the United States, it doesn’t look like Bin Laden needs another 9/11 style attack to “rally his base”. This could also explain the more calm demeanor in his most recent video message. At this point, Bin Laden may be more concerned with seeming moderate in an attempt to get the Arab world to unite behind him.

Not that I think that explains everything, I’m just throwing it out there.

Personally, I think the lack of attacks has been for a combination of factors that includes the one above. I think the dispersal of al Qaeda into decentralized “franchises” has also made it much more difficult to pull off large scale attacks (like 9/11), but at the same time made it more likely that we’ll face smaller scale attacks (like Madrid) with little regard to an overall gameplan by leaders like bin Laden or al-Zarqawi. While I’m not completely surprised that we haven’t had another catastrophe, it is a little odd that there haven’t been more homegrown copycats.

Additionally. I think that there’s a strong element of “we’re on al Qaeda time” in the sense that I think the next major attack will likely coincide with an economic downturn and be devised as the crippling blow to our economy. If economists are correct in their predictions of an upcoming recession, it would make more strategic sense to wait until the dollar completely plunges, inflation gets out of control, massive layoffs resume, etc. for bin Laden to execute his plans for, say, a large scale attack on our oil supplies, the NYSE, and the headquarters for Manpower Inc. or something.

Of course, it could just be that they don’t hate our freedom as much as they used to.