Last-Minute Cynical Predictions
With all the rumors swirling around on the eve of the Plame indictment(s), it’s hard to know what to believe. Is Rove off the hook? Will Fitzgerald seek another extension? Is the investigation being expanded? Considering how long this thing has been going and how much it’s been built up over the last two weeks, I think the effect of whatever happens tomorrow will be anything but vague. Anyone who excapes indictment will be immediately exonerated in the court of public opinion. Those caught in the grand jury’s trap will be thrown under the bus by the Republican establishment and explained away with a revised version of the “few bad apples” defense. If either Libby or Rove escape indictment, liberals will be universally pissed, whereas if anyone beyond those two is implicated, the Republican cries of political bias will be deafening.
Personally, I’m tired of this whole damn thing. If I had it my way, every one of the main players in the Administration would be indicted in this conspiracy, but the longer this drags on, the more I doubt anyone beyond a sacrificial lamb or two will face any legal trouble. These guys had more than enough time to shred notes, delete emails, get their stories straight, and practice the “I don’t remember” defense to face any real trouble. And if someone does get indicted, the President can issue a few pardons whenever it’s politically safe to do so.
In other words, the chances of this actually bringing down the Bush Administration are pretty slim. They’ve had numerous “accountability moments” over the years and somehow figured out a way to bounce back from every one. We’ll know in less than twelve hours whether or not this trend is reversing. I’m not getting my hopes up….
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I generally agree with the points you raised above, but there is one point I think you missed that works in our favor: The scandal doesn’t have to bring down the Bush Junta, only damage it enough that voters will take out their frustration and disgust with it on those Republican Senators and Representatives running for office or for re-election in 2006.
Denying the GOP control of one or both houses of Congress — or at least narrowing its control — would be extremely damaging to the Oval Office, and I think PlameGate has played a large role in such a thing coming to pass, which is good for the country.
Comment by S.M. Dixon — October 28, 2005 @ 4:35 am
I think Bush can pretty much forget about “political convenience” as soon as the mid-term elections are over. Hell, probably before then.
All he needs is his majority, which I’m sad to say, he’ll probably get. And then he can be a lamer duck in office. He won’t be impeached by his party and the spiraling public approval rating don’t really mean anything to him.
Once we (and I mean the American people, not you and I) put him back in office, we pretty much gave up all rights to having a President capable or willing of doing more than posed photo ops, endless restatements, restatements that “don’t end,” and general douche baggery.
So here’s what I’m going to do. Indictments or no, I’m going to campaign and vote for the Democrats I believe in. For Governor. For Congress. And if this country survives another three years, for President.
Comment by Dr. Pants — October 28, 2005 @ 6:54 am