Saddam’s gonna hang. If that’s the big pre-election surprise that’s supposed to deliver a Republican victory, then they’re even more incompetent than I thought. By handing over the trial of Saddam Hussein to the Iraqi government, the Bush Administration naively thought that it would be a perfect way to provide closure to the Iraqi people and unite them behind their still in its infancy government. Needless to say, the actual response makes the Bush predictions look as fanciful as the “greeted as liberators” boast :

The future of Iraq may depend little on whether Saddam Hussein hangs. The Sunni insurgency is so deeply entrenched and sectarian bloodlust so strong that Iraq seems set to continue spiraling into violence _ regardless of its former president’s fate.
. . .
But in the end, Saddam’s fate is not what’s driving the violence in Iraq now. Instead, religious, nationalistic and sectarian passions have taken over and are tearing the country apart.

Even if it causes a spasm of violence, Saddam’s verdict is just a symbol of the deeper, underlying problems. Sunnis are alarmed at the prospect of Shiite domination. Shiites are fed up with attacks by Sunni extremists.

Without an effective government to protect them, both communities have become locked in a murderous cycle of reprisal killings that looks set to continue.

Despite what the GOP might way about the impending death of Saddam Hussein, Iraq isn’t going to get better any time soon. If anything, this will just divide the Iraqi people further.