Polls

I was pretty sure Newsweek’s poll from last week showing a stunning 15-point lead for Obama was an outlier, but I guess not. The LA Times is showing a 12-point lead. Apparently the “running on a platform nearly identical to the most unpopular President ever” strategy isn’t working out as well for John McCain as he’d hoped. Even worse for him is the alternative, changing his positions for politically-safe ones, plays right into the “McCain is a flip-flopper” storyline (which has the added advantage of being true).

Democrats don’t like McCain. Independents sorta like McCain, but they like Obama much more. And Republicans don’t really like McCain, but are grudgingly supporting him because they accidentally made him the nominee. Not exactly the sort of trends you can use to win elections.


posted by greg on June 24, 2008 @ 1:41 pm

3 comments »

  1. The pundits have been falling all over themselves saying that these polls can’t be right, it’s too early, etc. Since these guys are never right, looks more and more like a landslide.

    Comment by namvetted — June 24, 2008 @ 1:44 pm

  2. [...] Pontifications, American Street, RADAMISTO, Wonkette, Commentary, MyDD, Spin Cycle, The Talent Show, TPM Election Central, Boston Globe, Martini Revolution, Real Clear Politics and Eschaton Share [...]

    Pingback by Newsweek No Longer An Outlier? | Comments from Left Field — June 24, 2008 @ 11:41 pm

  3. I think this is the post-clinch bump kicking in. The race will likely tighten up again.

    The other big problem McCain has is he seems to be running the Bob Dole/John Kerry style campaign. “I was in the military, you owe me your vote.” That never works. Thank god Democrats actually picked someone they liked this time around instead of yet again believing that putting a veteran on the ticket was all they needed to do to win.

    Comment by David Grenier — June 25, 2008 @ 4:13 am

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