Here’s my last chance to look foolish or prescient. All week I’ve been predicting Kaine would get the nod, but with reports that he and Bayh have been told they weren’t picked, it’s time to update my guess. As much as the media wants to stalk Joe Biden, I’m gonna go with Kathleen Sebelius. Here’s what I think of what I consider the top three candidates :

Chet Edwards - Oh god please, no. He would be the absolute worst. From his National Journal profile :

On several measures, he has worked with the Democratic leadership, supporting a waiting period for sales at gun shows and opposing repeal of the estate tax. He has voted for oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and for the constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.
. . .
In 2002 Farley ran again and national Republicans ran ads against Edwards arguing that he had the voting record of a Northeastern liberal. Edwards argued that he supported Bush on terrorism, education, welfare, energy and the Iraq war resolution.

I’m really hoping the only reason he was vetted was because Obama knows that if he wants to get anything through Congress, that he’ll need to keep its leaders on his good side (Pelosi was reportedly the one who pushed for Edwards).

Joe Biden - Meh. Not a huge fan, but I prefer him to Bayh or Kaine. I still stand by my earlier arguments that the Obama campaign is way too disciplined to want a blowhard like Biden on the campaign trail. The more I think about it and watch the coverage of Biden, the more I think he’s probably a willing participant in the Obama campaign’s toying with the media. I’m really going out on a limb at this point, but considering how leakproof the Obama campaign has been thus far, all of the “leaks” and clues pointing to Biden over the last few hours seem suspicious. Why would official sources let it be known that Obama hadn’t chosen Kaine or Bayh? They’ve been building suspense so well over the last week, it seems odd to deflate the tension a few hours before the announcement by preemptively eliminating two of the top three picks mentioned. If Biden is the pick, then the past day or so will make tomorrow morning’s text message pretty anticlimactic.

Kathleen Sebelius - She’s awesome. She’s a red state Democrat who’s got a lot more progressive bona fides than the standard “Liberal who loves the war and thinks abortion is murder” red state Dem. She’s got a reputation for getting things done in Kansas by taking advantage of divisions within the GOP rather than selling out and hoping for the best (see: Reid, Harry). I think she’d compliment Obama perfectly.

What I find so amusing about the CNN coverage is that they seem to be covering every. little. thing. that’s happening with Joe Biden, but nobody seems to be providing the same coverage of anyone else still left on the short list. There’s no live feed outside Chet Edwards’ home. They haven’t asked whether or not Sebelius was asked to provide a list of aides or friends. Their singular focus on Biden has them all but ignoring any other candidates. Obama has done such an incredible job playing the press so far, I doubt they’d tip their hand like this.

Or maybe CNN is right about Biden. We’ll find out soon.