The new Pollster.com interactive flash polling graphs are really cool. Finally you can trim the fat all you want and see a custom trendline based on the polls that you trust. For example, here’s an national aggregate I just put together that makes the following changes to the standard Pollster national trendline graph that I’ve featured here in the past :

1) It only includes live person polls, not robocalls or internet polls.
2) The upper and lower ranges have been changed to 60% and 30%.
3) It only shows polls conducted since June 1st.
4) It draws a “Less Sensitive” trendline, which gives a better overall sense of the momentum of the race rather than reflect every little polling blip.

Neeedless to say, these changes (which I made without any regard to how it would affect the numbers) give a much more comforting picture of the race as a whole :

That said, making these same changes on the state-level maps doesn’t yield the same pro-Obama trends, but there are too few state polls to really have the luxury of picking and choosing polling data the way you can with the national numbers.

Wow. This may be the douchiest thing in the history of presidential politics (which is saying a lot). After McCain turned into a drama queen on Wednesday and declared that he was going to suspend his campaign (which he didn’t) in order to rush back to Washington (which he didn’t) and save the economy (which he didn’t), he suddenly decided that even though negotiations on a potential bailout are worse now than they were 24 hours ago, enough had been done for him to shout “Time In!” and travel to tonight’s debates with his tail between his legs. Yet with his new stance revealing that his previous act of faux-bravery was just a political charade, McCain still found a way to one-up himself by declaring victory in a debate he hadn’t even agreed to attend :

Ugghhhh…Sarah Palin is an idiot :

Couric: When President Bush ran for office, he opposed nation-building. But he has spent, as you know, much of his presidency promoting democracy around the world. What lessons have you learned from Iraq? And how specifically will you try to spread democracy throughout the world?

Palin: Specifically, we will make every effort possible to help spread democracy for those who desire freedom, independence, tolerance, respect for equality. That is the whole goal here in fighting terrorism also. It’s not just to keep the people safe but to be able to usher in democratic values and ideals around this, around the world.

Let me just say that as great an orator as Obama is, he doesn’t stand a chance of winning a debate against an empty podium with John McCain’s name on it.

The McCain campaign thinks his campaign strategy of “suspending” his campaign helps reinforce his “Country First” slogan, but it really just makes him look like an old man who can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.

Wanna see something scary? Here’s what happens when you assign all of the Pollster.com toss-up states as they stand right now :

It’s been too long since our last constitutional crisis.

For the record, I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that this will be the result on election day. I think McCain’s chances of winning New Hampshire have always been overrated and that Obama has a good chance of winning Nevada, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and Florida. And that’s all before you account for the fact that (1) the lack of cell phone-only voters in polling samples is probably under-representing Obama’s support, (2) Obama has a better ground operation and has been registering new voters by the tens of thousands in the states that matter, and (3) the economic downturn will drive more undecided voters away from Keating Five-veteran McCain. Add to that the fact that Obama currently has the momentum of the race and that John McCain is going to seem like a self-righteous Mr. Magoo in the debates, I still insist that the race is still Obama’s to lose.

Add my voice to the chorus of those who scoff at the idea of giving a blank check to the finance industry whose lack of ethics got themselves into the mess they’re in now. I’m sympathetic to the notion that a bailout might be needed to forestall a bigger crisis, but there has to be strings attached. Robert Reich has some great ideas, though I’d be even harsher :

1) The CEO and entire Board of Directors are fired. No golden parachutes, just clean out your offices and don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out. Any executives VP and above loses all compensation beyond their base salary for this year and the next three years.

2) Every mortgage held by the company is refinanced at 30 year 5% fixed rate. Don’t punt this to bankruptcy judges or deal with on a case by case basis, just make it automatic unless a borrower decides to opt out.

3) Full transparency. Not just additional regulatory hoops to jump through, but every financial document available for shareholders via an externally-accessible corporate intranet site. Obama’s Google-for-government proposal adapted for corporate governance.

4) Stealing this one from Reich : “All Wall Street executives immediately cease making campaign contributions to any candidate for public office in this election cycle or next, all Wall Street PACs be closed, and Wall Street lobbyists curtail their activities unless specifically asked for information by policymakers.”

5) A new tax on the financial industry that goes into a fund (a la the tobacco industry) to fully inform Americans that a 30% interest rate doesn’t mean you’re paying 30 cents extra for every dollar you borrow. Public service announcements about predatory lending, mandatory classes about personal finance for all high schools, and major restrictions on misleading marketing. It’s not enough to simply ban the pseudo-fraudulent practices that prey on the ignorance of the American people, our country needs to be educated enough to realize what they’re getting into.

Not that any of this will actually happen. As Paul Krugman says :

And there’s no quid pro quo here — nothing that gives taxpayers a stake in the upside, nothing that ensures that the money is used to stabilize the system rather than reward the undeserving.

I hope I’m wrong about this. But let me say it again: Treasury needs to explain why this is supposed to work — not try to panic Congress into giving it a blank check. Otherwise, no deal.

I really hope Obama gets out in front on this issue tomorrow. His “Statement of Principles” is a damn good start.

Remember when everybody was freaking out last week about the poll numbers? Well, things are looking better now.

That’s the tracking poll I’ve been watching for the past month or so and it’s back in Obamaland. While Obama has been getting his groove back, the GOP’s favorite wolf-killer is tanking.



While the Palin phenomenon was intimidating for a minute there, let’s take a step back and look at the full Pollster.com aggregate trendline :



See that tiny little blip there on the right where the red line is above the blue? That’s Palin. Not exactly worth sweating over. Like every other fad, there’s a big backlash brewing and it’s only going to get worse. Imagine how well her favorability ratings will be if/when Biden mentions “rape kits” or “helicopter hunting” in the VP debate.

Contra what I said last week, don’t sweat the state polls. They’ll catch back up. To paraphrase McCain, the fundamentals of this election are strong. Keep donating and volunteering, but don’t loose your head. We’re cool.

Am I the only one who finds it kinda pathetic that the GOP candidate has to cling to his VP pick to attract crowds?