In these last few hours before the election, one thing that’s really been nagging at me has been Obama’s “Appalachia problem” from the primaries. As Josh Marshall described it in May :

There’s been a lot of talk in this campaign about Barack Obama’s problem with working class white voters or rural voters. But these claims are both inaccurate because they are incomplete. You can look at states like Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states and see the different numbers and they are all explained by one basic fact. Obama’s problem isn’t with white working class voters or rural voters. It’s Appalachia. That explains why Obama had a difficult time in Ohio and Pennsylvania and why he’s getting crushed in West Virginia and Kentucky.

My memory of those primaries, particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania, was that in the polls leading up to the primaries, Obama was running behind, but was still competitive. When the voting happened, however, Obama was trounced at the polls, giving us the closest look at a “Bradley effect”. This also corresponded with viral videos and news reports from these states of ignorant voters being quite candid about how they could never vote for an African-American. If I have one thing keeping me up at night, it’s the fear that some hidden pocket of racism in these two swing states will swing the election to John McCain.

But before we freak out, let’s take another look at the polling that led up to the OH and PA primaries :

Yes, Obama ended up losing both states, but the final results for Penn. and Ohio were 55% – 45% and 53% – 45% respectively. If you compare the final tallies to the polling, the conclusion isn’t that Clinton peeled away support from Obama, but that the undecided voters overwhelmingly sided with Clinton. Considering that these primaries coincided with the nadir of Obama’s popularity (Rev. Wright, the 3AM ad, etc.), the final result wasn’t too shocking.

Fast forward to today, and we’re in a much better position. The McCain campaign has been trying one sleazy trick after another without any of the success that Clinton had in the spring. Obama has consolidated his base and (so far) successfully executed an electoral strategy beyond the simple-minded “blue states + Florida or Ohio” that those living in the DC bubble would have waged. And the polling? Well, if we use the primaries as a guide and assume that Obama’s stated support is solid and it’s just a matter of where the undecideds land, then we’re golden :

Clinton’s luck of having the undecideds break away from Obama at a 2-to-1 margin won’t be enough to save McCain. Even if McCain wins ALL of the undecideds from these polls, he still loses. For McCain to win these states (which are his only realistic chance to win the presidency) the polls either need to be completely wrong or Obama’s support needs to collapse.

Needless to say, I’ll be doing everything I can to make sure the latter doesn’t happen. I’ll be waking up early tomorrow to spend a couple of hours phonebanking before going to work. Are you planning to volunteer? It’s not too late to sign up.