Kevin’s raining on the parade of liberal bloggers excited by the latest development in the Plame case, Judy Miller “finding” some notes regarding conversations she had will Scooter in June 2003 :

Let’s assume this conversation is actually “crucial,” as Waas says. After all, if it’s just a random loose end or a bit of extra confirmation for something Fitzgerald already knows, then there’s not much point in worrying about it. So let’s stipulate that something meaningful is going on here.

If that’s the case, it could mean one of two things. Option 1: it’s crucial because the conversation in June is a smoking gun that provides Fitzgerald the evidence he needs to hand down indictments. Option 2: the content of the conversation itself isn’t important. What’s crucial is that no one mentioned it in their previous testimony, and that means Fitzgerald now has a potential perjury rap he can use as leverage to coerce additional testimony out of Libby (or possibly Miller).

Do you see the problem here? Both of these options imply that Fitzgerald doesn’t yet have much of a case. Either he needs testimony about the June conversation — which he only learned about “days ago” — because after two years of investigation it’s his best hope of proving that someone leaked Plame’s name, or else he needs it in order to browbeat testimony about the leak from someone else. Or worse, it means he’s given up on the leak and is trying to construct perjury or obstruction of justice charges that he thinks he can make stick instead.

I think this is all based on a pretty narrow definition of the word “crucial”. Granted, I’m just brainstorming here, but I can imagine a number of scenarios in which the June 2003 memo could be considered “crucial” without actually risking the possibility of indictments :

The notes provide details on further conspirators beyond Libby and Rove.

The notes give Fitgerald the information needed to expand the scope of his inquiry into the Niger forgeries themselves, the Administration’s use of misinformation to sell the Iraq war, etc.

The notes give enough specific detail to allow Fitzgerald to seek indictments under the Intelligence Identities Protection Act instead of the easier to prosecute Espionage Act.

I’ll leave further speculation to the more experienced Plameologists, but I think the question of if there will be indictments is all but settled at this point.